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Case Study

Hebron Quantitative Risk Assessment

Hebron is an offshore heavy oil development located in the Jeanne d'Arc Basin, approximately 340 km off the coast of St. John's, Newfoundland Canada and in approximately 93 meters of water depth.

The situation

Hebron is an offshore heavy oil development located in the Jeanne d'Arc Basin, approximately 340 km off the coast of St. John's, Newfoundland Canada and in approximately 93 meters of water depth. 

For the facilities topsides to comply with the requirements stated by the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (CLNOPB), Advisian provided a quantitative risk assessment of the topsides. 

Our approach

We assessed a number of different major accident events (MAE), including: 

  • MAE-01 - Loss of containment 

  • MAE-02 - Well blowout

  • MAE-03 - Hydrocarbon fire and/or explosion 

  • MAE-04 - Non-hydrocarbon fire 

  • MAE-05 - Environmental loading: iceberg impact 

  • MAE-06 - Ship collision

  • MAE-07 - Helicopter operation

  • MAE-08 - Seismic instability 

  • MAE-09 - Structural failure

  • MAE-10 - Dropped objects 

The quantitative risk assessment model was developed in Microsoft Excel and incorporated fire and explosion modelling, using computational fluid dynamics by a third part contractor. 

We also incorporated annualised heat and mass balanced data – as well as the drilling and workover/intervention profile – to dynamically track the facility risk level over the facility lifetime.

Results

Our quantitative risk assessment model allowed for the following key risk metrics to be quantified:

  • Individual risk per annum

  • Potential for loss of life

  • Area-specific risk per annum

In addition, the QRA quantified the impairment probabilities of key safety systems, including the temporary refuge, primary escape routes and life boats. 

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